Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, arrived at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this month for the final day of the event. It was a big day for the party, as they had just lost 20% of their MPs. This would usually be a major setback for any political party, but Reform UK is not your average party.
Amid the war of words played out on social media between Farage and one of Reform’s four other MPs, Rupert Lowe, the party’s popularity has remained undeterred. The drama unfolded as Lowe accused Farage of acting like a “messiah”, leading to his suspension from the party. But despite the negative headlines this caused, the party’s standing in the polls has barely been affected.
In fact, recent polling data from Survation shows that Reform UK has actually gained more support in Scotland – a country where Farage once had to be locked in a pub to escape from a baying mob outside. This raises the question: how has Reform UK managed to retain its popularity with the public, and will it last?
When we look at the polls, it’s clear that Reform UK is neck and neck with other major parties. They currently have the support of between 23% to 25% of the population, which has not been affected by the Lowe controversy. Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common think-tank, believes Reform UK has weathered the storm relatively unscathed, as Lowe is not a household name, even among Reform voters. This internal dispute has not shifted public perceptions of the party.
But there could be trouble ahead for Reform UK. While Farage’s gift for political communication has been a huge asset for the party, his friendship with former US president Donald Trump and reluctance to criticize Russian president Vladimir Putin could potentially do more harm than good. Tryl has noted early signs that Reform’s ascent may be slowing down, due to their controversial position on climate change and Ukraine, as well as Farage’s close association with Trump.
Former Reform UK spin doctor, Gawain Towler, has acknowledged some discomfort among party activists regarding the handling of the Lowe row. However, he believes that the majority of members understand the importance of what the party is trying to achieve and are even more determined in their support. Towler also emphasizes the need for unity within the party, as they aim to be a serious contender for government in the future.
Despite the controversies and internal disputes, the polls continue to show a rise in support for Reform UK. But can they turn this support into actual votes when it matters most?
The upcoming local council elections on May 1st will be a big test for the party. With over 1,600 council seats up for grabs, Reform UK, who currently holds only nine seats, is expected to make gains at the expense of other major parties. However, of the 224 council by-elections that have taken place since last July, Reform has only won 12. The by-election in Runcorn, which is a head-to-head battle between Reform and Labour, will be a crucial test. If Reform wins, it will send shockwaves through Westminster and put a shiver up the spine of many Labour MPs. But if they lose, it will raise doubts about their ability to turn their popularity into action.
So, what is Labour doing to counter the threat of Reform? Despite Farage’s ambition for Reform UK to overtake the Tories as the UK’s main right-of-center party, it is Labour MPs who could potentially be most at risk from the party’s rise. In the last general election, Reform came second to Labour in 89 seats, many of which were in the traditionally Labour-supporting Red Wall regions that also voted for Brexit in 2016 and Boris Johnson in 2019.
Jonathan Ashworth, former Labour MP and now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, believes it is crucial for his party to continuously scrutinize Reform and expose their flaws. He points out that many voters are uncomfortable with Farage’s admiration for Putin and his past comments about the NHS, which could end up costing the taxpayer more money. Ashworth urged Labour to keep highlighting these issues and punching the bruise.
A Labour MP from the Red Wall regions also shared their concerns about the rise of Reform, stating that they are a populist party with no clear policies or manifesto. While they may seem like an attractive option to some voters, the MP believes Reform cannot deliver on their promises and
