Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has made it clear that he is on a mission to win over traditional Labour voters. With local elections and a crucial by-election looming on May 1st, Farage is pulling out all the stops to attract these voters to his cause.
At a recent event in County Durham, Farage boldly declared, “Reform are parking their tanks on the lawns of the Red Wall. Today is the first day I’ve said that, but I absolutely mean it – we’re here, and we’re here to stay.” This statement reflects Farage’s determination to make inroads into the Labour heartlands and secure a significant number of votes in the next general election.
In a somewhat surprising move, Farage, who has previously expressed admiration for Margaret Thatcher, is now talking about “reindustrialising” the UK and advocating for the nationalisation of British Steel. He has even gone as far as cozying up to trade unions, a move that would have been unthinkable for him in the past.
This strategy is aimed at appealing to the Labour voters in the North and Midlands who supported Brexit in 2016, voted for Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019, and then returned to Labour in the last election. With millions of votes and dozens of Red Wall seats up for grabs, Farage has set his sights on 10 Downing Street.
However, not everyone is convinced by Farage’s charm offensive. Jonathan Ashworth, former Labour MP and chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, believes that Farage’s efforts will be in vain. He stated, “Northerners aren’t daft and will smell Farage’s bullshit from a mile away. Farage has spent his whole political career backing Thatcherite economics which devastated industrial communities. He opposes workers’ rights and decent pay rises. It’s clear as day that the NHS will never be safe in Reform’s hands.”
A source from 10 Downing Street also dismissed Farage’s attempts to woo Labour voters, saying, “While Nigel Farage was in County Durham pretending to care about the working class, business secretary Johnny Reynolds was literally at Immingham Port watching the raw materials being unloaded to keep British Steel going. And when the PM visited Scunthorpe, he received a standing ovation from the workforce. This idea that we can’t win there now is nonsense.”
However, exclusive analysis by pollsters Ipsos for HuffPost UK shows that there is potential for Reform to make significant gains in Labour’s heartlands. In former manufacturing and mining areas in the North of England and South Wales, there is a strong feeling among voters that they have been left behind by successive Tory and Labour governments. Issues such as jobs, policing, public transport, and affordable housing are of great concern to these voters, and only 24% believe that public services will improve in the next two to three years.
Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK politics at Ipsos, believes that there is fertile ground for Reform to take advantage of. He stated, “People are attracted to Reform because they see it as a party that will deliver change and keep their promises. They have a leader in Farage who is seen as strong and has a lot of personality. He understands the problems facing Britain, especially on getting immigration under control, and represents traditional British values.”
Labour’s strategy for dealing with the Reform threat has been to highlight Farage’s past comments about moving the NHS to a French-style insurance model and to accuse the party of being “Putin’s poodles.” Farage’s well-known support for Donald Trump is also seen as a weak spot, something he has tried to address by criticizing the US president in recent weeks.
Skinner added, “Reform UK still has work to do to correct some of the more negative views about them, which makes these local elections an important test for them. Nationally, while they lead on immigration and are neck-and-neck on crime, they trail Labour on other key issues like the NHS, the economy, housing, transport, and education. People are worried that a Nigel Farage-led government would be divisive, too close to Donald Trump, and that Reform doesn’t have enough talent to build a competent administration. Overall, Keir Starmer still leads Nigel Farage in the public’s mind as the best prime minister.”
One Labour Party veteran stated, “While our attacks on Farage about the NHS are not the silver bullet, they are cutting through and damaging Reform. It is definitely better than calling them far-right and
