Nigel Farage’s presence has once again stirred up the political landscape in Scotland. The Brexit Party leader was in Aberdeen yesterday before heading to campaign in Hamilton, where a crucial by-election for the Scottish Parliament seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is set to take place. The stakes are high, as the outcome of this by-election could have serious implications for both Scottish and UK politics.
It is a well-known saying that the road to a Labour majority at Westminster runs through Scotland. And history has proven this to be true, with a hefty contingent of Scottish MPs often being a prerequisite for any Labour leader to have realistic ambitions of entering 10 Downing Street. In fact, just 11 months ago, Labour claimed an impressive 37 of the 57 Scottish seats up for grabs, as Keir Starmer swept to a historic landslide victory.
This is why the by-election on Thursday is so significant. The seat is up for grabs following the sad passing of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, who won it at the last Holyrood election with a majority of 4,582. At the time, with Labour riding high in Scotland and the SNP struggling, this would have been seen as a relatively comfortable gain for Starmer’s party. But a lot has changed since then.
Since last July, both Starmer and Labour have seen their poll ratings nosedive, due in no small part to unpopular policies such as scrapping winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners. And as a result, the bookies – who are rarely wrong in these matters – have the SNP as heavy odds-on favourites to retain the seat. But that’s not the only cause for concern for Labour and Starmer.
In a shocking twist, Reform UK – led by Nigel Farage – are currently the favourites to leapfrog Labour and claim second place in the by-election. Such a seismic result in what was once a Labour stronghold would undoubtedly send shockwaves through 10 Downing Street, where thoughts are already turning to Starmer’s chances of being returned to power at the next general election in 2028 or 2029.
Adding to the drama, is the fact that Imogen Walker – wife of Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney – is MP for the neighbouring Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley. This only adds to the significance of the by-election and is certainly a factor that No.10 will be closely monitoring.
Labour’s campaign has been under intense scrutiny, with a further blow dealt on Monday when one of the party’s councillors in Scotland, Jamie McGuire, defected to Reform UK. This move was perfectly timed to coincide with Farage’s first visit to the constituency, where he was forced to cancel a meet-and-greet with voters after supporters and opponents of Reform clashed.
Labour has been quick to seize on Farage’s admission that a Reform victory on Thursday is “improbable” and have been telling voters that only they can beat the SNP. Senior Labour insiders remain confident that they still have a good chance of winning the tight three-way contest. “It’s close but on the right side of close,” one insider told HuffPost UK. “Farage saying it’s ‘improbable’ they’ll win and there’s only a chance they’ll come second, which chimes with our data.”
In a last-minute attempt to sway voters, SNP leader John Swinney published an open letter to voters in the Daily Record newspaper, stating that only his party can beat Reform. But this move has been dismissed by Labour as “total and utter panic” with one Labour MP stating, “Why would they do that if they were winning comfortably and we’re supposedly struggling? It’s complete desperation. They want to turn it into a Reform v SNP fight to try to shore up the progressive vote.”
Despite these tactics, the most likely outcome of the by-election remains an SNP hold, with Labour and Reform battling it out for second place. Just a month ago, Reform made waves in the English local elections, routing both Labour and the Tories. And if Farage manages to defeat Starmer once again on Thursday, the ramifications for UK politics as a whole could be massive.
In conclusion, Nigel Farage’s visit to Aberdeen and his subsequent campaign in Hamilton have certainly added a new layer of excitement and unpredictability to this by-election. With the odds stacked against Labour and Starmer, this will undoubtedly be a crucial test for the party and their leader. And with the potential for a
