Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, will be arriving in Manchester this Saturday for the annual conference. However, the party is facing a tough time as recent polls have shown a significant decline in their popularity. With only 11% of voters believing that the Conservatives are ready for government and just 20% approving of Badenoch’s performance as leader, it is clear that the party has a lot of work to do.
Traditionally known for their strong management of the economy, the Tories are now struggling to gain the trust of the public. Only a quarter of voters trust them on economic matters, and even more concerning, only one in seven trust them on immigration. This is a worrying trend for the party, especially with the rise of Reform UK, which poses an existential threat to their existence.
It is evident that the Conservatives have a mountain to climb to regain the trust of the public and be competitive in the next election. Badenoch’s solution seems to be to take the party further to the right in an attempt to win back voters from Reform UK. However, this approach has already caused division within the party, with some members, including former Prime Minister Theresa May, expressing their disapproval.
One senior party figure stated, “She needs to not act like a sad Reform tribute act and instead make the most of the fact that Labour is fighting Reform while we get our act together and become grown-up politicians again.” Another Tory insider added, “I don’t want much really, just for her not to be weird.”
The last time the Conservatives gathered in Manchester was in 2023, and they were still in power, albeit trailing behind Labour and heading for a crushing defeat in the general election. However, the most recent polls show that the party is in an even more precarious position, trailing both Reform and Labour and fighting for third place with the Liberal Democrats.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta, painted a bleak picture of Badenoch’s prospects. He stated, “It’s very hard to see a route in which Kemi Badenoch can turn around the fortunes of her ailing party. Her main threat is Reform UK, but she can’t outdo Farage at his own game. Why would voters choose the half-baked version of the real thing?”
According to polling expert Keiran Pedley, the biggest challenge facing Badenoch is “to make any impact at all.” He added, “Badenoch and the Tories are searching for a message that makes them distinctive from the two main players at the moment, but they have yet to find it.”
After last year’s conference, which was dominated by the contest to succeed Rishi Sunak, one veteran backbencher stated that next week’s event will be a “wake-up call for the party.” He added, “The reality of what happened to us at the last election will come home to roost.”
However, some Tory MPs believe that Badenoch’s less-than-impressive performance as leader could work to her advantage in Manchester. One stated, “Expectations are so low that it will probably be better than most people think. Kemi’s got nothing to lose, and I think she’ll rise to the occasion.”
A former cabinet minister believes that any Tory fightback is dependent on the Labour government also getting its act together. He stated, “The number one thing that needs to happen is the government needs to be less shit. People need to have faith in establishment politics. At the moment, we have a toxic cocktail of people thinking we were shit, and now Labour is shit, so let’s just blow the whole thing up by voting for Reform.”
He added, “For Kemi, it’s just a case of putting the building blocks in place so that we are in a position to take advantage if the public mood changes. No one is under any illusions that this conference is going to be a transformative event. There will be noises off, but colleagues don’t think changing the leader will make any material difference. It’s about keeping going and winning the right to be heard again.”
The reality is that the next few days in Manchester will not make or break Badenoch’s leadership. The true test for her and Labour leader Keir Starmer will be next May, when elections will take place for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and local councils across England. If these elections prove to be as disastrous for the two main
